NFL Best Bets (Sunday, 1/11/26)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 11, 2026 | 9:08 A.M. CST

Best Bets:

2-Team 6 Point Teaser: Buffalo Bills to San Francisco 49ers

So we’re going to take a 2 team teaser in the NFL for our top play of the day. This is going to be a very highly rated play, because I think we’re getting a ton of value here. We saw the first two playoff games yesterday come down to the final drive. Both featured late comebacks, and both games finished as one score games. That’s no different than what we’ve seen this season. We’ve seen a ton of late game comebacks, fourth quarter lead changes, and one score games all year long. We’ve continued to see that in the first two games of the playoffs, and I believe it will continue today.

Let’s start with the Bills. They are a great teaser leg from a value standpoint, regardless of whether you think Buffalo is going to win this game. Josh Allen has started 13 games for the Bills in the playoffs. He’s 7-6 in the post-season, and of those 6 losses only 2 have come by more than one score. Those two losses that came by double digits came against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs & against Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Both those years, the team that beat the Bills by double digits in the post-season went on to reach the Super Bowl. No offense to Trevor Lawerence and the Jags, but this team is nowhere near as good as those teams. Allen has dominated anyone not named Burrow or Mahomes in the playoffs over the course of his career. He’s 7-1 straight up against all other starting QBs, with the lone loss coming in his first ever playoff start; a game the Bills lost by 3 in overtime. So, just from a purely historical standpoint, taking the Bills with Josh Allen and catching 7.5 in a playoff game is an easy sell. Then you look at this team throughout the course of the season. The Bills lost just two games all year by more than a touchdown, and those came back in weeks 5 & 10.

Then we take a look at the other side: Trevor Lawerence and the Jags. Jacksonville has not been to the playoffs since 2022. You have a starting QB with 2 career playoff starts, and 1 career playoff win. That lone win was against the LA Chargers, where Lawerence threw 4 interceptions in the first half. The Jags were lucky to even be in that game in the second half, let alone comeback and win it. In his two playoff starts Lawerence has 5 TDs, 5 picks, and completed 60% of his passes. Now, I concede that the Jags in the regular season looked as good as anyone the last 10 weeks. They went 5-3 against playoff teams in the regular season, so they are plenty battle tested. I just believe the playoffs are different. Sometimes sports betting is complex, other times it’s simple. This is one of the instances where it’s simple. Give me Josh Allen over Trevor Lawerence every day of the week in the playoffs. I believe the Bills will win this game outright, but getting them over the key number of 7 is just incredible value. I made Buffalo a 2.5 point favorite, and they are currently sitting a 1.5 point dog.

Second leg of the teaser we’re going to go to the San Francisco 49ers. Now, this one is not a traditional teaser leg, because we’re not going through 3 and 7 and getting the value, but I’m going to explain why I think it’s more than worth it to take the Niners +12 here. From a value standpoint, secondary key numbers matter way more in the playoffs than they do in the regular season. Getting through 10 in the regular season probably isn’t worth it, unless it’s a very low total game. But here it makes a ton of sense. First of all, I strongly disagree with the line move here. I know Ricky Pearsoll was ruled out, and Trent Williams is questionable. But all signs point towards Williams playing, and if he does this line move is skewing this line significantly. With Williams and Pearsoll in the lineup, I make these teams essentially equal on a neutral field. Yet, somehow we’re catching 6 points.

Then you look at the Eagles results this season. Philadelphia had just 3 wins by double digits this year. Those wins came against 3 of the worst teams in the league: the New York Giants, the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Washington Commanders. And, even the Commanders win didn’t cover the number they’d have to in this game if we teased this to +12 (Phili beat Washington 29-18). Moreover, the Eagles went 3-3 against playoff teams in the regular season. Those 3 wins came by 7, 3, and 1; and, the game they won by 7 ended in a blocked field goal returned for a TD. In reality, they should’ve lost that game to the Rams. But, even if they win it, the meaningless field goal return skewed the final score. In reality, they SQUEAKED by good teams all year. And that makes sense, considering they are a below average offensive team in every meaningful metric. It’s almost impossible to win by big numbers against quality teams with the style the Eagles play.

Then you look at San Francisco. Not only are we getting a team that was one win away from being the number one overall seed, but we’re getting them catching double digits against a bad offense (with the teaser). Brock Purdy and this Niners offense looked unstoppable the last 5 weeks before the Seahawks shut them down week 18. But, that game came without Trent Williams. I know this game is in Philadelphia, and the Eagles are the defending Super Bowl champs, but I see the Niners as an equal to Philadelphia. Thus, the value to get this through the key of 7 and through the secondary key of 10 is just too much value. I actually think the Bills and Niners are going to both win outright. So, it might be worth it to sprinkle a little bit of money on a moneyline parlay with those two dogs (probably pays north of 4.5 to 1). But, our best bet, and our 4-star play is going to be teasing the Bills and the Niners today.

Official Pick: 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (Bills +7.5 | 49ers +12)

Play Rating: 4-Star

College Basketball Best Bet (1/11/26)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 11, 2026 | 1:53 A.M. CST

Note: I will start posting my actual breakdowns on the site from now on for my customers. I have been just posting the picks, but analysis will now be added to every pick, even for free picks.

Best Bet: Iowa vs. Illinois

#16 Illinois (12-3) comes into this contest 3-1 in Big 10 play, riding a 4-game win streak. Although they are ranked #16 in the AP poll, they are actually a top-10 team in the KenPom rankings. The Fighting Illini are especially good offensively this season, ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency (KP). They’re top 40 in the nation in effective FG%, top 25 in 2FG%, and top 5 in FT%. Despite being a high potent offense, the Illini do not have a single scorer averaging more than 15.5 points per game; that’s because they have an extremely balanced attack, with 5 players averaging double figures through 15 games. They’re led by 6’6 freshman Keaton Wagler, who has scored double figures in 7 straight games, and averaged over 17 points per game during that stretch.

#19 Iowa comes into this conference battle with the exact same record as Illinois (12-3), but they are just 2-2 in Big 10 play, with an early road loss to Michigan State and a loss in their most recent outing on the road at Minnesota. Iowa is ranked exactly the same in KenPom as they are in the AP poll (19th), with a top-30 offense and a top-20 defense. Their offensive numbers aren’t quite as impressive as Illinois from an efficiency standpoint, but they are a phenomenal shooting team. The Hawkeyes come in top-10 in the entire country in effective FG%, 4th in the nation in 2FG%, and 38th in 3FG% at 37% from behind the arc. They are exceptional at executing in the half court, as they score at an extremely efficient rate, while playing at one of the slowest tempos in the country.

Spot:

The spot here clearly favors the Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa comes into this matchup off a loss to Minnesota. They are just 2-2 in Big 10 play, while Illinois is coming off their 4th straight victory, already 3-1 in Big 10 play. Head coach Ben McCullom was the head coach at Drake last season. Not only did he bring a large portion of his players from Drake to Iowa, but he also lost back-to-back games only once last season. McCullom does an excellent job of preparing his teams and having them bounce back off a loss. Maybe as importantly, though, is the meaning of this game for Iowa. As mentioned before, the Hawkeyes come into this game just 2-2 in conference. Their next two games after Illinois are at #4 Purdue, followed by at top-25 Indiana. With two ranked road opponents following this matchup, this is a MUST WIN at home against Illinois. While the Illini are no slouch, the importance of this game will be stressed by this Hawkeye coaching staff. They MUST hold serve at home and get to 3-2 with that road trip on deck.

Matchup:

As mentioned above, the Illini have the advantage when you look at the offensive efficiency metrics. However, if you look closely, the Hawkeyes are actually the better shooting team by far. While Iowa is top 30 in the country in 3FG% (37.0%), the Illini are just 125th in the nation (34.8%). Despite being just a slightly above average shooting it from 3, Illinois 48% of the Illini field goal attempts are 3s. They are heavily reliant on the triple, despite not shooting it all that great. Moreover, Iowa is a top 30 defense when it comes to defending the 3-point line. Additionally, while both teams are solid at taking care of the ball (Illinois slightly better), Iowa also is excellent at forcing turnovers, while Illinois is one of the worst teams in the country in that regard. That means more possessions for the Hawkeyes, especially when you factor in the home/road split.

Home Court Advantage:

It can’t be stressed enough in these big conference games early in the season: HOME COURT MATTERS. We see these two teams in KenPom 10 ranks apart, yet the line is Iowa -1.5 in the game, because they factor in the spot and the location. It especially matters in this matchup. Why? Because, Iowa has 3 losses this season, and all 3 losses came on the road. They’re a perfect 9-0 at home this season, including 2-0 in conference games by an average margin of 16 points. On the other hand, the Illini have only played one true road game this season, and it came against Ohio State (an 88-80 win). Although they pulled that game out, it was tight the entire way, and the Buckeyes are not even a top-35 team in the country.

Additionally, Illinois has faced 4 top 20 teams (in KenPoms rankings) this season. In those 4 games, the Illini went just 1-3, with their lone win coming on a neutral floor against 20th ranked Tennessee (who probably won’t be top 20 much longer). The other 3 games against top 20 teams included neutral floor losses to UCONN and Alabama, as well as a home loss to Nebraska. Now the Fighting Illini will face a legitimate top 20 team for the 5th time this season, but for the first time this season they’ll be doing it on the road. Iowa isn’t the toughest place in the country to play, but when it’s packed they have a solid home court advantage.

Pick:

Because of all of the things listed above I believe this is a great spot for Iowa. So, we’re going to roll with the Hawkeyes. However, we’re actually going to look to the 1st half. Why? Well, first off Iowa is not the type of team to come from behind. They play at an extremely slow pace, and they wear you down for 40 minutes playing late into the shot clock over and over again. They aren’t built to come from behind, and it would be especially difficult against a very talented offensive team like Illinois. If Iowa is down at halftime, they are likely going to lose this game outright anyways. So, rather than have to sweat it out for 40 minutes, we’re going to back Iowa in the 1st half. We also will get a cheaper number here in the first half than in the game (moneyline). So let’s back Iowa MONEYLINE in the first half this morning.

Official Pick: Iowa 1H (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Basketball Best Bets (1/10/26)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 10, 2026 | 2:05 P.M. CST

Best Bets:

Auburn -2.5 vs. Arkansas

Ole Miss -1 vs. Missouri

Play Ratings: 2-Stars

NFL Playoffs Wild Card Best Bets (1/10/26)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 10, 2026 | 11:00 A.M. CST

Best Bets:

Saturday Games:

LA Rams Team Total (1H) OVER 14.5

LA Rams Team Total OVER 28.5

• I’ll break these both down in one short summary. This is a phenomenal spot to back this Rams offense. They are the number one ranked offense in football over the course of this season. They had one bad outing, following that brutal loss to the Seahawks where they blew a 16 point lead in the 4th quarter and gave away the number one overall seed. Even after a slow start against the Cardinals week 18, the Rams still managed to put up north of 40, and they got over both these totals. The Panthers defense isn’t bad, but they aren’t an above average unit either. Add to all of this the fact that the Rams have already seen the Panthers once this season. So, McVay has plenty of tape to work with. I think you see a very motivated Rams team in this game, looking to make a point to the rest of the league. I don’t expect this game to be close, and I don’t expect this Panthers defense to have any ability to stop Matthew Stafford and company.

• Official Picks: Rams Team Total Over 28.5 | Rams Team Total Over 14.5 (1st Half)

Sunday Games:

Buffalo Bills ML (+115) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

• This is simple. We’re getting Josh Allen in the playoffs against Trevor Lawerence. That’s really all that needs to be said. Yes, the Jaguars have been the better overall team over the course of the regular season. But, Trevor Lawerence has two career playoff starts. In those 2 starts he’s thrown 5 TDs, 5 picks, and completed just 60% of his passes. Josh Allen will be starting his 14th playoff game today. By the way, Allen against all QBs not named Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow in the playoffs: 7-1. His lone loss to another QB came against the Houston Texans in his first career playoff start. That was back when DeShaun Watson was an all-pro level QB. And, it was a 3 point overtime loss. Since then Allen has won 7 straight against the rest of the league. We’re backing the Bills here. It’s going to be a tight game, because this Bills team is not good enough to run away from anyone, let alone on the road. But in a tight game, give me Josh Allen every day of the week and twice on Sunday

• Official Pick: Bills +115 (Moneyline)

San Francisco 49ers +6 @ Philadelphia Eagles

• The 49ers should be a dog in this spot. They are dealing with some major injuries, coming off a road loss to the Seahawks in a very physical game, and they now have to go on the road to take on the defending Super Bowl champs. The issue is that they should not be this big of a dog. Even with the injuries, playing on the road, going up against the champs, this number is 2.5+ points too big. I made this 3. Moreover, this is a HUGE coaching mismatch. Kyle Shanahan is one of the best coaches in the NFL (argument can be made he’s the best). Nick Siriani is a complete product of a system. He doesn’t call plays, he doesn’t make in-game adjustments, he doesn’t command the respect of his players. He’s a figurehead. That works when you have someone competent calling plays. It doesn’t when Kevin Patullo calling plays. This Eagles offense has been anemic this entire season. They were never great throwing the ball, even in their Super Bowl run. What made them elite is that teams lined up and knew the Eagles were running the ball, and those teams still could not stop them. This year they’ve significantly regressed running the ball, while continuing to have a poor passing attack. The result is only 3 wins by double digits all season. Those 3 wins came against the Raiders, Giants, and Commanders. They have zero wins by a TD or more against a team with more than 5 wins. Now you want this team to cover nearly a TD in the playoffs? This number is just way off. I think the Niners are a live dog in this spot, and catching 6 is just a bonus. Sprinkle some on the moneyline and don’t be shocked if San Fran wins this outright.

• Official Pick: 49ers +6 (-110)

Both Play Ratings: 2-Stars

College Football Best Bet CFP Semifinal (1/9/26)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 8, 2026 | 11:58 A.M. CST

Best Bet:

Indiana Team Total OVER 24.5 vs. Oregon

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Basketball Best Bets (Tuesday, January 6, 2026)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 6, 2026 | 3:43 P.M. CST

Best Bets Today:

1) Houston -3.5 (1st Half) vs. Texas Tech

2) Louisville vs. Duke OVER 161

3) Wyoming Team Total OVER 79 vs. UNLV

Play Ratings: All 2-Stars

College Football Best Bets (11/29/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 29, 2025 | 6:33 A.M. CST

Note: Keep in mind, we have a parlay alive from yesterday (Texas beat A&M, so we have Vandy moneyline for a shot to hit a 4 to 1 parlay)

Best Bets:

1) Ohio State -5 (1st Half) @ Michigan: This is one of my favorite plays of the year. The number here in the game is completely off. They are factoring in the recent history of Ohio State being unable to beat Michigan. This is the spot they finally do it. Last year they were a HUGE favorite and lost outright at home - without a doubt the Buckeyes saw how much better they were last year and overlooked Michigan (as hard as that is to believe). This year, they are on the road, with a freshman QB, and they likely have to win to get in the Big 10 Title and hang onto a 1st round bye. There’s zero shot Ohio State is overlooking this Michigan team. The Wolverines are getting every bit of OSU’s focus in this spot. And with Jeremiah Smith set to play, this OSU team is 14.3 points better than Michigan on the road (according to my power rankings). We’re getting a TON of value, but I LOVE the first half. I think we’re good in the game and the first half, but I just believe OSU jumps on them early, and I don’t want to deal with any chance of a backdoor late if OSU is up 20+ and takes their foot off the gas with the Big 10 Championship on deck.

Official Pick: Ohio State -5 1st Half (-105)

Play Rating: 4-Star

2) Vanderbilt +3 @ Tennessee: This is another one where the wrong team is favored. I just don’t understand the lack of respect Vanderbilt receives on a weekly basis. They’ve done nothing but outperform market expectations all year, and we still don’t see nearly enough adjustment by oddsmakers. I’ve been riding Vandy all year and we’re going to do it one more time here. We already have them in the parlay, but we’re going to back them plus the three as well. Give me the Commodores all day to take down their rival and give themselves a shot a CFP appearance.

Official Pick: Vanderbilt +3 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

3) TCU -3.5 vs. Cincinnati: This line is wildly short. TCU outgained Houston by a million yards last week, but just could not put them away. That final score was very deceiving. Meanwhile, Cinci has been reeling as of late. They have had back-to-back opportunities to get huge wins and put themselves in conference title position and lost both games as favorites (Arizona & BYU). Now they come into this game in a huge let down spot, where they have absolutely nothing to play for. They are downtrending significantly from their surge mid-season. Both those games were also at home, and now they have to go on the road to take on this TCU team who has multiple seniors playing in their final home game. I love TCU in this spot. I made the Horned Frogs nearly a touchdown favorite. I don’t understand why we saw this line tick down the last day. I disagree strongly with the professional money on Cinci here. Give me TCU in this spot, and I think they win big.

Official Pick: TCU -3.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Football Best Bets & SNS Podcast Locks (11/28/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 28, 2025 | 2:40 A.M. CST

Best Bets:

1) Iowa -6 vs. Nebraska: We’ve seen nothing but pro money on Iowa push this from 4.5 all the way to 6. There’s value at anything under a full touchdown. Nebraska has nothing to play for, and Iowa has been solid on the road all season. Gronowski is playing his best ball as of late, and Iowa has gotten better each week. There are two plays away from being in the CFP. Give me the Hawkeyes here, as I think they cruise to an easy win over the Huskers.

2) New Mexico -1 vs. San Diego State: These are two teams trending in opposite directions. NM is playing their best ball as of late, while SDSU peaked a little early. Yes, they are 9-2, but they snuck by Boise in a ugly game 17-7 a few weeks ago. And, their last road game, they got absolutely spanked by Hawaii. New Mexico has a dynamic offense, and I think they can do enough on the defensive side to get this done. The Lobos win this by a touchdown.

3) Texas Longhorns +3 vs. Texas A&M: The wrong team is favored here from a talent perspective. Texas’ schedule is twice as difficult as A&M’s, and the Aggies needed a 27 point comeback two weeks ago to beat a bad South Carolina team at home. A&M has been the beneficiary of a horrific SEC schedule, and a lucky win at Notre Dame week 2. If you look at it objectively, Texas should not be catching any points, and you are now getting a full field goal. Give me the Longhorns. They win this by 28-24.

All Plays: 2-Stars

BONUS 2 Team Moneyline Underdog Parlay:

Texas +125 vs. Texas A&M | Vanderbilt +125 @ Tennessee

Odds: 4 to 1

Play Rating: 2-Star

SNS Podcast Picks:

We had some technical difficulties with our audio on our picks show this week, so instead of our normal YouTube video, I’ll be posting our picks here.

Dylan’s Bet Your Baby Bets: New Mexico -1, Ohio State -5 (1H), & TCU -3.5

Uncle T’s Total of the Week: Texas Tech vs. West Virginia OVER 52.5

Uncle T’s Dog of the Week: Auburn +210 over Bama | Auburn +7 vs. Bama

College Basketball Best Bets (11/21/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 21, 2025 | 8:03 A.M. CST

Best Bets:

1) Texas Tech +3.5 vs. Purdue

2) Kansas State +115 (ML) vs. Nebraska

Play Ratings: 2-Stars

College Football Friday Night Special (11/21/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 21, 2025 | 4:49 P.M. CST

Best Bet: NC State +6.5 vs. Florida State

Both teams come into this ACC matchup Friday night looking to get bowl eligible (both come in 5-5). However, the season for Florida State has been much more disappointing than NC State’s. FSU started the season off with an outright upset over top 10 Alabama, eventually climbing into the top 10 themselves, before utterly collapsing in ACC play. They come into this game with very little motivation; nobody on that FSU roster really cares about getting bowl eligible.

While NC State is no slum of a program, they didn’t have the same expectations FSU did after the week 1 win, nor do they have the program pedigree that FSU has. Thus, winning this game actually matters to them. They have a shot to take down a premier program in college football and get bowl eligible while doing it. The motivation edge goes to NC State by far.

Then you look at the pure matchup. I loved NC State when this opened at +4.5. They’re at home, on a Friday night, where dogs have done very well this season. Yet for some reason we’ve seen some professional money come in on FSU and push this close to a touchdown. I couldn’t disagree with this move more. I’m going to take the points. If you can get a 7 somewhere at -123 or better that’s ideal. But I still love it at 6.5

Official Pick: NC State +6.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 3-Star

College Football Play of the Month (11/15/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 15, 2025 | 2:08 A.M. CST

This is my top play of the month, and will be a 4-star rating. The play is below.

Play of the Month: Navy @ South Florida OVER 62.5

Play Rating: 4-Star

Slobberknocker Sports Pick’Em Show

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 8, 2025 | 7:01 A.M. CST

Picks for the Show:

Dylan’s Bet Your Baby Bets:

1) Vanderbilt -6.5 vs. Auburn

2) UNLV -3.5 vs. Colorado State

3) Iowa +6.5 vs. Oregon

4) LSU @ Bama Over 48.5

Uncle T’s Total of the Week:

Oregon @ Iowa OVER 40

Uncle T’s Dog of the Week:

Temple +7 (+200) @ Army

College Football Best Bets (11/8/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 8, 2025 | 2:10 A.M. CST

Note: We’ve been on a heck of a run lately, and luckily we laid off last weekend, because I just hated the card. I’m glad I did, as the majority of my leans and considerations ended up as losses. We went 0-1 in the NFL last week, but we are over 65% over the past month in CFB and NFL combined. Let’s finish the season strong, and have a great November. My best bets for week 11 are listed & explained below!!

Best Bets:

1) UNLV -3.5 vs. Colorado State

This is far more a fade of Colorado State, than it a backing of UNLV. The Rebels have had a weird season under 1st year coach Dan Mullen. They struggled mightily their opening game with an FCS opponent in Idaho State (specifically defensively). However, despite struggling to stop a nosebleed, the Rebels started the season a perfect 6-0 & were positioned perfectly to compete for a CFB Playoff Spot in the second half of the season. Those hopes have quickly come crashing down, following back-to-back losses to Boise State and New Mexico the last two weeks. That said, they are still a far superior team to their opponent in this spot, in Colorado State.

The Rams have just two wins all season: a 4 point win over an FCS team in Northern Colorado week 2, and a 49-21 win over Fresno State a few weeks ago. This team was not talented from the start of the season, but injuries, late transfers, and now a coaching firing have derailed their season entirely. Head Coach Jay Norvell was fired following a 31-19 loss to Hawaii three weeks ago. The rams had a full two weeks to prepare for their next game under their interim head coach, as they entered their bye week at the time of Norvell’s exit. They also had the benefit of playing Wyoming, one of the worst teams in the MW. With all that in their favor, they came out and laid an absolute egg in Laramie. The Cowboys THROTTLED the Rams, 28-0. It looked like CSU had given up on the season, as Wyoming has been one of the worst offenses in the country, and managed to put up 28 points on them.

UNLV’s defense is the only area of concern in covering this number. However, the Rebels mainly struggle against the pass. That’s okay in this spot, because CSU has one of the worst passing offenses in the country for a non-option team. They turned to their backup QB, Jackson Brousseau early in the season. He’s thrown just 6 TDs and 3 picks in his 4 starts. All three of those picks came last week against Wyoming. He was benched for a true freshman QB, who came in and was worse in his 25 snaps. I just don’t see the Rams being able to exploit this UNLV secondary the way they need to in order to win this game. UNLV has been decent enough against the run, and CSU is not a great running team anyways. As long as UNLV can force some third and medium to longs & get CSU into some known passing downs, they’ll be able to get enough stops to run away with this one.

In my opinion, CSU has quit on the season. The firing of Norvell clearly was not a positive factor in the locker room over the bye week, and now they have to handle one of the best offenses in the country in the Runnin’ Rebels. Back UNLV and lay the 3.5 (I’d lay 4 at the same level, but decrease unit if it gets to 4.5 or higher).

Official Pick: UNLV -3.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

2) Temple +7 @ Army:

Temple has been one of the pleasant surprises in college football this season. They’ve been one of the worst teams in the country over the past half decade, but they come into this game 5-4, just one game away from bowl eligibility. Reaching a bowl would be a big accomplishment for first year Temple Head Coach, K.C. Keeler. That said, if Temple does want to get back to a bowl game for the first time since 2019, they may have to pull an “upset” this week against Army, as their final two games are against Tulane and North Texas, two of the best teams in the conference. Luckily for the Owls, I believe they are a live dog in this spot.

Army has been a very odd team in 2025. They opened the season getting upset by Tarleton State, at home; then, followed that up by upsetting pre-season top 25 Kansas State in Manhattan. They come into this game with 4 wins, needing 2 more for bowl eligibility (with 4 total games left to play). They have a much easier schedule to finish the season, though. They likely will get to a bowl game with a win, but will still have a good shot of finishing the season 2-1, based on their schedule.

Now, it can be hard to defend option teams if you have not seen them before. However, Temple already played Navy earlier this season, losing a shootout 32-31 on a 2-point conversion with just 1 second to play. Although Temple lost the game, their post-game win expectancy was over 90%. The Owls just crumbled defensively on the final possession against a team that doesn’t traditionally drop back and throw the ball efficiently. That said, Navy is a MUCH BETTER team (and offense) than Army, and the Owls were right there for 60 minutes. Prior to the final drive, Temple was out-gaining Navy by over 200 yards, and had done a pretty good job holding a potent Navy offense somewhat in check. My overall point of all of this is that this won’t be a shock to the system seeing this style of offense for the Owls. They will be more than prepared for this option style attack.

On the other side of the ball, Temple has a distinct advantage. The Army defense has better the past month, but overall they still rank outside the top 75 in college football, despite playing a bottom 35 strength of schedule. Temple’s offense isn’t elite by any stretch, but they will be able to find plenty of success today against this Army defense.

I believe Temple is a live dog here, and this number has gotten up to 7. I think there’s clearly value catching a full touchdown here. The Owls have a legitimate shot to win this here, and we’re going to get a motivated performance from a team trying to earn the right to play in a bowl game. Let’s back Temple and the points and sprinkle a little on the moneyline.

Official Pick: Temple (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Stars

College Basketball Best Bets (11/7/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 7, 2025 | 5:10 P.M. CST

Best Bets:

1) North Carolina -2 vs. Kansas:

We’re just going to back the home team, with the better overall roster here. Darryn Peterson (KU) will be the best player on the floor, and he’s a STAR. But, the rest of the Kansas roster is not very impressive, and UNC has a good mix of experienced transfers, returning players, and talented freshmen. Going to Chapel Hill this early in the season is tough for any team, and we’re laying just 2 in this spot. Back the Tar Heels.

2) Idaho State +6 vs. San Diego:

This is purely a coaching matchup disadvantage for San Diego. Steve Lavin is 35-62 as a head coach at SD over the past 3 seasons. His teams have gotten worse as he’s been there, and they are traditionally undisciplined and poorly coached. Meanwhile Idaho State’s head coach Ryan Looney is phenomenal, working his way up from NAIA, to DII, to Division 1. He’s been at Idaho State since 2019, and his teams are disciplined, well coached, and will be well prepared. They also beat SD by double digits last year. Back Idaho State plus the points here.

3) Buffalo vs. Green Bay OVER 147.5:

This number opened 153.5 and is down 6 points. I think we’ve just gotten too low here. Green Bay was horrific defensively last season, and gave up over 90 in their opener (albeit to Kansas). I don’t see how they slow down a high potent Buffalo offense, that made 12 threes and shot over 40% from beyond the arc in game 1 against Southern Miss. It’s likely we see Buffalo get to 80 at the very least (likely north of 85). We’re going to only need a score in the 60s from Green Bay. As bad as Doug Gottlieb is as a head coach, I do think they have enough offense to put that up in this spot. Give me the over here, and I think we get there relatively easily.

All 3 Plays: 2-Star

NFL Sunday Best Bets (11/2/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 2, 2025 | 12:34 A.M. CST

Last Week: 4-1

Best Bets Today:

2 Team 6 Point Teaser: Detroit Lions -2.5 | New England Patriots +1

Play Rating: 2-Stars

NFL Sunday Best Bets (10/26/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 26, 2025 | 2:20 A.M. CST

Note: We were 2-1 yesterday in college, which brings us to 8-3 the last 3 weeks. We have been heating up in NFL and college. Let’s keep it going today, because I LOVE the slate!!

Best Bets:

1) New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals OVER 44.5: This number is way too low. The Bengals have one of the worst defenses in football. The Jets when playing on the road have FLOWN over this total. The last two weeks are easy to look at and think this game could go under. But, one of those games was in London, and the other was the week after the London game when teams traditionally are jet lagged, and play horrible. So if you throw those two games out, this number looks really short. The Bengals played an absolute shootout last week. Now that Joe Flacco is under center, I love this offense. And the Jets defense on the road has been significantly worse. Give me the over here, I think it goes over by multiple scores. This is my favorite play of the day.

3-Stars

2) Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos OVER 51: If the Broncos recapture any of their offensive explosion from the 4th quarter of last week, this game could see absolute fireworks. The Cowboys offense has proven they can score on absolutely anyone. The Packers came in week 3 as the best pass defense in football, and Dak absolutely torched them for 40 points. The Cowboys defense has looked slightly better the last couple weeks, but they are still not great. And I think the Broncos are rightly favored here. I don’t see how this isn’t a shootout. Give me the over here as well.

2-Stars

3) Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 45: I love overs this week. And we’re going to go with one more in the Sunday night game. The Steelers are the 28th ranked defense in the NFL, despite the fact that they are somehow 4-2. The Packers looked to be one of the best defenses in the league early on, but the last few weeks they’ve looked extremely vulnerable, especially against the pass. I think Rodgers will have plenty of success here in the are, in this revenge game. Give me the over, in what I think is going to look like a very short number by late Sunday night.

2-Stars

4) 2 Team Teaser: Bills -1 | Chiefs -5.5: Bills are going to win by 3+ scores. And, while I don’t like going through only one key number, I don’t see a world where the Chiefs don’t win by 7+ at home, in primetime, against a team with a losing record, without their star QB. This is my top teaser of the week.

2-Stars

5) 2 Team Teaser: Bears +8.5 | Saints +9.5: I love the Saints leg here. They’ve not lost at home by more than 8 all season, while the Bucs have not won a road game by more than that number all year. These teams are divisional rivals, and they tend to play close games. The Bears leg I don’t love as much, but I’m fading the Ravens run defense here in a game where they are starting a backup QB. That’s a tall task, and I’m going to play the numbers.

2-Stars

College Football Best Bets Saturday (10/25/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 25, 2025 | 9:41 A.M. CST

Note: We’re 6-2 the last 2 weeks in CFB. We’re starting to heat up, so let’s see if we can keep it going. 3 best bets below!!

Best Bets:

1) Kansas State +3.5 @ Kansas: I’m shocked the Wildcats are a dog here. They haven’t lost to Kansas in 18 years. The streak continues, as the records don’t indicate the true difference between these two teams. Avery Johnson and company will roll here. Take the Wildcats plus the points, but they win outright.

2) Vanderbilt -2.5 vs. Missouri: The disrespect the market gives Vanderbilt on a weekly basis baffles me. They should be a 5.5 point favorite here, and we are laying less than a FG at home. It’s absolutely wild that they refuse to accept that Vandy is actually a legit football team. Missouri isn’t bad at all, but this is a tough spot, on the road for a second straight week after losing a tough fought game against Bama last week. Give me Vandy until the market adjusts every week.

3) LSU +2.5 vs. Texas A&M: By the numbers, LSU should be a dog. But I’m going to play the spot and situation here. A&M has beaten nobody all year, and LSU’s season are on the line. The injuries for the Tigers do scare me, but not enough to keep me off LSU at night. Brian Kelly SUCKS, but one place he doesn’t suck is at night at home in Death Valley. Give me LSU and the points here, and I think they win outright and save their season and Kelly’s job (at least for one more week).

All Plays: 2-Star

College Football Friday Best Bet (10/24/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 24, 2025 | 5:17 A.M. CST

Best Bet: Virginia Tech -5 vs. Cal

At first glance, this line is pretty crazy. Virginia Tech comes into this game as one of the most disappointing teams in the country. A lot of people saw the Hokies has a legitimate ACC contender this season, but they got off to an abysmal start, losing their first 3 games. They hit rock bottom week 3 after getting spanked 45-26 against Old Dominion at home! Following that game, Justin Feunte (head coach of VT) was fired, and rightfully so. I have no problem throwing that game out when looking at this VT team, as they clearly quit on their head coach at that point. Since the coaching change the Hokies have gone 2-2, including an outright win as a 9 point underdog at NC State. They have dropped their last two games, but they were competitive in both, and one of those losses came on the road against undefeated #7 Georgia Tech. Cal, on the other hand, has had a surprising start to the season, coming into this matchup 5-2 and 2-1 in the ACC. That said, they have played one of the easier schedules in the country. Their 5 wins have come against Oregon State, Texas Southern, Minnesota, Boston College, and North Carolina. Minnesota is the only team Cal’s beaten in the top 75 in my power rankings. The other 4 are 4 of the worst teams in the country. Last week against a bad North Carolina team, the Golden Bears escaped with a 3 point win, only because a UNC wide receiver fumbled the ball on the one yard line, going into score in the final minute of the game. North Carolina likely wins that game by 4 if the receiver hangs onto the ball. Additionally, their only two road games this season have come against two very poorly ranked teams (SDSU and Boston College). They lost the SDSU game 34-0 and beat Boston College 28-24. Now they head into an environment on a Friday night that is much more difficult to play in than their two previous road games, Assuming the VT crowd shows up, a night game in Blacksburg is one of the more difficult places to play in college football. In addition to all of that, the overall talent gap between these two teams is quite significant. And, lastly I love the spot for VT here in a nationally televised game on a Friday night, coming off a bye. Despite the fact that Cal is 5-2 and VT is having a disastrous season, the Hokies opened as a short favorite and have been bet all the way up to 5. We’ve seen significant pro money on the Hokies pushing this number up, and that one way traffic is continuing through Friday morning. Let’s back the Hokies here, and it’s good at anything less than a touchdown,

Official Pick: Virginia Tech -5 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

NFL Best Bets (10/19/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 19, 2025 | 8:37 A.M. CST

Best Bets:

1) Cleveland Browns -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins:

The Miami Dolphins are an absolute dumpster fire this season, and it’s only trending down. Mike McDaniel is one bad loss away from losing his job, and the players don’t seem to care one bit. They already have multiple key injuries on the defensive side, and they lost Tyreek Hill for the season a few weeks ago. They come into this game 1-5. The Browns come into the game 1-5 as well, but they’ve actually been phenomenal defensively this season. The issue has been on the offensive end. I am happy to throw out last week’s loss, as they were coming back from London, which is always a tough spot. While I don’t love Dillon Gabriel (in fact I think he’s awful), I actually prefer him going against this pathetic Miami defense, over Tua going against this top 5 Browns defense. Additionally, I love this spot due to the weather. It’s supposed to be nasty in Cleveland today, and we should see tons of rain. That’s a recipe for DISASTER for Tua. He’s always struggled against elite defenses. And he’s always struggled in weather. We’re getting BOTH of these today. This is one of my favorite spots of the year. Let’s back the Browns and lay anything less than a field goal.

Official Pick: Browns -2.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 4-Star

2) Philadelphia Eagles -1 @ Minnesota Vikings

I don’t typically like taking short road favorites like this, but I’m okay doing it here for two reasons. One, I love the Eagles coming off two consecutive losses. While I don’t think they are the same team they were last year, I do think they BELIEVE they are just as good. And that means we are going to get a very motivated team who does not want to lose 3 straight. I believe we get a really focused effort from Jalen Hurts and the passing game. Secondly, I love this spot because I love fading Carson Wentz off a good performance. Wentz is one of the most inconsistent players in the league, and he almost never has multiple good outings in a row. I think he’s due for some regression here. While the Eagles defense hasn’t been great, they are opportunistic, and it wouldn’t surprise me here to see Wentz commit some turnovers and negative plays. I don’t love this as much as I love the Browns today, but I do think this is a good spot for Phili, and I think the Eagles off two straight losses will bounce back and find a way to get a win here. Note that the line has dropped from 2.5 all the way to 1, so we definitely have some value now getting this at essentially a pick’em.

Official Pick: Eagles -1 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

3) Detroit Lions -6 vs. Tampa Bay Bucs

The Bucs come into this game with a 5-1 record, a game ahead of the Lions in the NFC, but the 4-2 Lions are clearly the better overall football team. The Bucs have been phenomenal in close games, winning each of their first 3 games on the final play of the game. Baker Mayfield has been nothing short of fantastic thus far this season, but there’s only so much he can do as the injuries continue to pile up. Chris Godwin will be out Monday night. Emeka Egbuka and Mike Evans are both dealing with hamstring injuries and are questionable for tomorrow night. If either (or both) do go, who knows how healthy they will actually be. Not to mention, the risk of re-injury for both with that type of injury is very high. You’d imagine any tweak of the hamstring for either guy would lead the Bucs to sit them the rest of the game. The Lions also come into this game in a good spot. They are coming off a loss to the Chiefs last week, a game they were thouroughly outplayed start to finish. They will be looking to bounce back here, and Dan Campbell off a loss has been great as a head coach in Detroit. This Lions team lost week 1 against the Green Bay Packers on the road (same as last week), then came back week 2 and absolutely spanked the Chicago Bears. The Lions were 6 points favorites in that game and won 52-21. While I don’t think the Lions are going to win by 30, I do think they have a distinct advantage in this one. If the Bucs were totally healthy, I still think the Lions should be around a 5.5 to 6 point favorite. But, the Bucs are NOT healthy, and I don’t believe this line is fully indicitive of the current rosters trotting out there Monday night. This line really should be at least 7. I could argue (if Egbuka and Evans both don’t go) that it could even be 7.5 or 8. That said, even if both of those guys end up playing, I think we are getting value here laying anything less than a touchdown. The Lions offense should have their way with a Bucs defense that relies on the blitz more than any other defense in football. There are too many weapons for the Lions, and the O-Line is too good. Plus, the Lions have had an extra day to prepare for the Bucs blitz packages, with this game being on Monday Night. I LOVE the Lions in this spot, so let’s lay the 6. Even if it gets to 6.5 I still like it a lot. The only number I wouldn’t actually lay is 7, but there’s 6 across the board out there right now.

Official Pick: Lions -6 (-110)

Play Rating: 4-Star

Slobberknocker Sports Picks (Week 8)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 18, 2025 | 10:35 A.M. CST

Picks

Dylan’s Bet Your Baby Bets:

• TCU -2.5 vs. Baylor

• Vanderbilt -2.5 vs. LSU

• Wyoming @ Air Force OVER 57.5

• Auburn +1.5 vs. Missouri

Uncle T’s Total of the Week:

• UNLV @ Boise State OVER 63.5

Uncle T’s DD Dog of the Week:

• Mississippi State +9.5 (+290) @ Florida