Blog
College Football Best Bets (Saturday, 9/13/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 13, 2025 | 1:08 P.M. CST
College Football Record: 5-4
Today’s Best Bets:
1) Texas Tech vs. Oregon State OVER 61.5 (-110)
2) Arkansas +6 @ Ole Miss (-110)
3) Texas A&M +7 (Buy 1/2 Point) @ Notre Dame (-110)
4) Florida +7 (Buy 1/2 Point) @ LSU (-110)
All Play Ratings: 2-Star
MLB Best Bets (9/9/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 9, 2025 | 8:59 A.M. CST
Best Bets:
1) St. Louis Cardinals +170 vs. Seattle Mariners: George Kirby has had the worst season of his career, and his metrics the last month have pointed towards a continued downward trajectory. The Cardinals should be closer to +140 in this spot, so we’re grabbing 30 points of value. Back the Cards +170 (Good to +155)
Official Pick: Cardinals +170
Play Rating: 2-Stars
2) Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels OVER 9 Runs (-110): These two pitchers both carry an ERA over 5.00. And recent outings for Zebby Matthew (MIN) in particular have been absolutely awful. He’s particularly bad against the Angels, getting shelled last time he faced them. I expect runs early and often in this game. Take the OVER 9 runs at -110 (good to -119)
Official Pick: Twins/Angels OVER 9 Runs (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Stars
NFL Best Bets (Sunday, 9/7/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 6, 2025 | 11:18 P.M. CST
Today’s Recap: I’m posting this late Saturday night, so recapping the day. Went a perfect 2-0 which was nice after a rough week 2 in CFB. We now sit 5-4 on the season in college. Don’t forget, we won the first leg of our NFL Teaser for week 1 (Eagles -2), and we now just need the Broncos -2(my favorite teaser leg of the week). Hopefully we book an easy win there, and we can start 1-0 in NFL and get to 60% to start the season overall through 3 weeks.
Sunday NFL Best Bet:
Pick: Baltimore Ravens ML (-110) @ Buffalo Bills
Look this is simple logic here, the Ravens are much more motivated in this spot than the Bills. You have a Baltimore team coming off a loss in the playoffs in Buffalo last season that left a nasty taste in their mouth. They’ve been salivating at this opportunity ever since the NFL schedule was released.
I love Josh Allen more than anyone, and I don’t love fading the Bills at Orchard Park. However, this is an early September game. It’s much different than playing in Buffalo in late November. Not to mention, the Bills are extremely thin on the defensive side of the ball. I actually believe these two teams will meet for the AFC Championship game this year. I believe the Chiefs take a huge step back, and I don’t think the Chargers or Broncos are quite ready to make a deep playoff run. Allen and Jackson are the last two reigning MVPs, and they are the best two QBs in the NFL (in the regular season) the last few years. The difference is that the Ravens have way more weapons surrounding Jackson. Whereas, the Bills rely on Allen to do just about everything. While Allen can often turn into Superman, I don’t see it here early in the year. Especially against a motivated Ravens team.
Baltimore comes out with their head on fire, they jump all over the Bills, and they don’t let off the gas. This number should be Baltimore -3, and we’re basically getting 10% juice for a pick’em. We’re backing the Ravens here on Sunday night. Best of luck and let’s start off the season with an easy winner!!
Official Pick: Ravens ML (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Stars
College Football Best Bets, Afternoon (Saturday, 9/6/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 6, 2025 | 1:01 P.M. CST
Best Bet
Mississippi State +7 vs Arizona State
Play Rating: 2 Stars
College Football Best Bets, Early Games (Saturday, 9/6/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 6, 2025 | 9:52 A.M. CST
Best Bets:
1) Baylor Bears +3 @ SMU Mustangs
2) Illinois -2.5 @ Duke
Play Ratings Both: 2-Stars
NFL Teaser of the Week (9/4/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 4, 2025 | 2:14 P.M. CST
Best Bet (Teaser of the Week): Broncos -2 vs. Titans | Eagles -2 vs. Cowboys
Both are good to play at -2.5 or better (anything under 3 is great)
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Football Best Bet (Sunday, 8/31/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | August 31, 2025 | 4:49 P.M. CST
Overall Record: 3-3
Summary: Rough day yesterday. Went 0-2. Northwestern was the wrong side, without a doubt. Preston Stone (SMU transfer QB) was significantly worse than I expected. NW was driving deep into Tulane territory, late 2nd quarter down 10-3, with a chance to tie the game and turned it over. Tulane took it the length of the field the following drive to make it 17-3, and NW couldn’t recover. The second game was much different. A&M played a pathetic first half offensively, and still should’ve covered easily. Despite underperforming all half the Aggies had the ball needing just a FG to cover with 55 seconds to go. They reached the 45 yard line and Marcel Reed made some horrible throws that resulted in a 3 and out.
Update: Make sure to check out our podcast, where we give out our best bets of the week on Wednesday nights. I give out 4, and Uncle T gives out his total of the week and underdog of the week. We also give out a combined 3-team parlay. This week I went 3-1 on my best bets. Uncle T won his total of the week, but lost the dog. And our parlay is 2 for 2 going into tonight, with Notre Dame -2 (the line when given out) as the last leg.
Best Bet Tonight: Notre Dame -130 vs. Miami (FL)
We’re going to back Notre Dame tonight in this early season, top 10 matchup. Notre Dame’s defense is the most known commodity going into tonight. I honestly think backing the under is worth a look here too, but the number has gotten so low, and I don’t trust Mario Cristobal. I could see Notre Dame having a lot of success tonight, specifically on the ground.
CJ Carr is definitely not someone we know a lot about, but we do know a lot about Carson Beck. And, if you’ve followed him over the years you’d know that he is talented but does not always perform. He struggled mightily last year once he lost his two top targets from his first season. While Miami does have a number of talented players, they lost their best 2 weapons from a season ago in Xavier Restrepo and Elijah Arroyo. I think he struggles big time tonight against what might be the nation’s most talented defense.
Take Notre Dame. If you can find -2 (-110) or better ATS, you can do that. Otherwise back them on the ML. We don’t want to lay a full 3 here in a low total game. But -130 is out there at multiple books. So is -2, so find the best number available, but avoid laying more than 2 and more than -130.
Official Pick: Notre Dame -130
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Football Best Bets (Saturday, 8/30/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | August 30, 2025 | 9:45 A.M. CST
Sorry for the late post. Here are my two best bets for the day. Not going to post a summary because I want to get this out quick. But if you want a summary of the Texas A&M play check out our college football picks show on Youtube @slobberknockersports
Best Bets:
1) Northwestern +4.5 (-110) vs. Tulane
2) Texas A&M (1H) -13.5 vs. UTSA
Both plays: 2 Units
Free College Football Play of the Day (Friday, 8/29/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | August 29, 2025 | 4:15 A.M. CST
Last Night Recap: Great night last night, as we went 2-0 on our best bets with winners on Buffalo +18 and Cinci +7.
Free Play of the Day: This play below is NOT an official play. This is a play that just missed my card. I do not have anything on this game whatsoever and it will NOT count for my Best Bets record, win or lose. These free plays are essentially just leans. It’s a side that I like but missed the cut for whatever reason.
Friday’s Free Play of the Day:
Pick: Baylor Bears +1.5 vs. Auburn
Summary: the line on this game opened Auburn -2.5 and we’ve seen significant money push it down to 1.5. Some spots it’s trending towards pick. Auburn had a rough year last year, missing a bowl game once again under Hugh Freeze. Baylor wasn’t all that much better early in the year but they improved significantly as the season progressed, which likely saved Dave Arranda his job.
Going into this year Auburn has the better recruiting class, but Baylor has the much more known commodity at QB in Sawyer Robertson. He’s got a solid arm, mobility, and he’s done it for multiple years at a power 5 school. On the other side, the Tigers trot out Jackson Arnold. A highly touted prospect out of HS, Arnold had high expectations, but largely disappointed in his freshman campaign at OU, getting benched prior to the mid-season rivalry game against Texas. The kid he was benched for was a 3-star kid with significant skill deficiencies. While Arnold did end up getting starts later in the season, it was clear he was not ready to lead a high division 1 program. Now he transfers to Auburn and has to go on the road week 1 to a solid team with a much improved defense.
The reason is stated away from this game is I truly don’t trust Dave Arranda. I think he’s a subpar coach, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was out in Waco by the end of the season. That said, I still lean Baylor here. Not only do they have the better QB, but fading Hugh Freeze is normally a profitable endeavor. He’s done nothing but underperform, from a wins standpoint, as well as ATS. I don’t expect either team to look particularly sharp tonight, but I trust the home team, taking pro money, with the better QB, and the not as shitty head coach.
Let’s back Baylor for our free play of the day. Reminder, I have no real play in this, it’s simply a lean.
Pick: Baylor +1.5
College Football Best Bets (Thursday, 8/28/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | August 28, 2025 | 4:03 A.M. CST
Season Record: 1-1
Best Bet No. 1: Cincinnati +7 (-125) vs. Nebraska: Must buy half a point to get to 7
Cinci comes into this game returning 9 of 11 starters on the defensive side of the ball. The Bearcats started the season 5-2 last year and played good football early, before collapsing down the stretch and missing a bowl game (0-5 to end the year). However, they return a good portion of their offense as well, including their starting QB Brenden Sowsby (good dual threat QB).
On the other side, Nebraska returns a ton on the offensive side of the ball, but only 5 on defense. Nebraska really struggled in pass defense last season, finishing outside the top 75 in FBS. Additionally, they were a horrific road team, specifically on the offensive side of the ball. They scored over 20 points on the road just once in 5 games last season, with that lone outing being a 28 point performance against Purdue (the worst defense in the Big 10). They averaged just 16.4 PPG on the road last season, and struggled to move the ball consistently.
We’re going to back the Bearcats here at home in the opener. I think the Dylan Rioala hype is way overblown. He was an average collegiate QB last year, and Nebraska was an average team. Laying nearly a touchdown on the road, with no proven record of success this early in the season is
Best Bet No. 2: Buffalo +18 vs. Minnesota: this one is broken down on my podcast on youtube. Search Slobberknocker Sports and fast forward to the best bets section of the show.
Both Bet Units: 2
College Football Week 0 Best Best (8/23/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | August 23, 2025 | 3:37 A.M. CST
Best bets are below, with more to come week 1
Best Bets:
1) Kansas State -3 (-110) vs. Iowa State
2) Hawaii -130 (1H) vs. Stanford
Both plays: 2-Star
College Football Win Totals Part 1 (8/23/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | August 23, 2025 | 3:07 A.M. CST
Below I will provide the win totals that I have already bet. There is still a week left for a number of teams before they play their first game, and I’m still working on my totals. So, I will post a second part of this article with additional win total picks.
Win Totals:
1) Hawaii OVER 5.5 Wins (-165): Hawaii won 5 games last season (finished 5-7), and they lost 3 games by 3 points or less. They were very close to being bowl eligible last year, and I believe they will get there this season. They return 14 starters, and that doesn’t include their QB (who started the final game of the season last year and threw for 300+ yards & 5 TDs). With the exception of a game at UNLV, the Rainbow Warriors don’t have a sure loss on the schedule, and they avoid having to face Boise State.
2) LSU OVER 8.5 Wins (-140): Last year I faded LSU (took them Under 9.5 wins), largely due to a poor transfer portal and recruiting class and we cashed that easily. This year we’re taking the opposite approach, largely due to the incoming talent and returning production. If Arch Manning stays for two seasons, there’s a good chance Garrett Nussmeier is the number one overall pick in the draft next year. Looking at the schedule, if they go into Clemson and win week 1, the Tigers are going to cruise over this win total easily. BUT, if they lose week 1, they still have a legitimate shot to go over. We have room for 3 losses, and even with a loss to Clemson, the Tigers schedule is favorable ENOUGH to get to 9 wins. They avoid Texas and Georgia in SEC play, and one of their road SEC games is Vanderbilt. The Tigers will win 9 or 10 games (depending on if they take down Clemson week 1).
3) Oregon UNDER 10.5 (-135): Dante Moore is a 5-star kid, transferring from UCLA. The problem is, he couldn’t even win the starting job on one of the worst teams in the conference last year. He struggles with accuracy, consistency, and taking care of the ball; and while Oregon is a hub for QB production, I’m not sold that Moore is going to be able to step in the way Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel did for the Ducks. Now, they don’t have the toughest schedule, but they DO go TO Penn State. That is going to be a loss, baring significant injury to the Nittany Lions. Thus, we only need the Ducks to lose one more game out of their 11 remaining. And, they are coming off an undefeated season, which is often hard to follow up (look at FSU last year). We’re backing Oregon to go UNDER their win total here.
4) Indiana OVER 8.5 Wins: The Hoosiers non-conference schedule is an absolute joke. They will undoubtedly start the year 3-0, meaning we need to go 6-3 or better to cash the win total from week 4 on. While they do have to go to Penn State and Oregon (both very likely losses), they dodge Ohio State in the regular season. Additionally, 5 of their remaining 9 opponents have win total projections below 6 games. If odds hold true, that means Indiana would have to beat just ONE team projected to make a bowl game to cash this ticket. The numbers back up Indiana over here, as I have them winning 9.7 games this year (model). Take the Hoosiers to go OVER their win total
NBA Finals Game 7 Best Bet (6/22/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 22, 2025 | 9:21 A.M. CST
Previous Play: We won last week on Tuesday on our moneyline favorite parlay in the WNBA. We were very fortunate in the NY Liberty game, as they fell behind big, and were able to comeback and find a way to win late at home. The other three games were all blowouts. Another win in the books nonetheless.
Current Streak: 4
Best Bet Tonight: OKC Thunder -6.5 vs. Indiana Pacers
I did a video breaking down this game on YouTube, and there where I broke down the keys to the game. Go checkout that video if you want a full game breakdown. But here I’m just going to focus on the number, which is where the value lies here. Games 1 & 5 the Thunder closed as a 9.5 point favorite, and in game 2 they closed as a 10.5 point favorite. Those were the 3 home games they’ve had in this series. They’ve won and covered 2 of those 3 games (including each of the last two). The lone game they didn’t cover, they led by double digits in the fourth and just collapsed late. So, just from a pure numbers perspective, this makes absolutely no sense. We’re looking at a number that is a full 3 points short from the average number we’ve opened in this series. So from a pure value perspective, the Thunder are 100% the side here.
Secondly, you have to look at how good OKC has been at home this postseason. They’ve had two losses in the playoffs by a combined 3 points, and both came on buzzer beaters. One came against the Nuggets in game 1 of the West Semis. The other came in game 1 of the NBA Finals against their current opponent, the Indiana Pacers. Overall, the Thunder have been DOMINANT at home, and nothing has been different in the NBA Finals. They are 10-2 straight up at home in the post-season, with a +247 scoring margin. That’s ABSURD, especially considering the fact that they have 2 losses in that stretch. And, there’s no reason to believe the dominance is going to change tonight. Yes, the Pacers have been very fortunate and they’ve been the hottest team in the league up to this point. But, the Pacers have not been the same team on the road.
We’re going to roll with the Thunder tonight and lay the 6.5. It’s just too cheap of a price; the number is just plain wrong. I understand factoring in a game 7 and factoring in the “destiny” feel of this Pacers team. But I believe in numbers and math. And the math says that this number is 3 points short. While the Thunder may have been overpriced in the series price to start the NBA Finals, they are largely underpriced tonight. Let’s take advantage of it. Lay the 6.5. I would play it to 7 (-110).
Official Pick: OKC Thunder -6.5 (-120); play to -7 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
WNBA Moneyline Parlay (6/17/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 17, 2025 | 4:32 PM CST
Previous Best Bets: 2-0 on the Friday bets at the US Open. We had two stress free wins Friday with Brooks Keopka leading from start to finish over Jordan Speith who was horrible Friday morning. We followed that up with an EASY win with Adam Scott shooting an even par 70, while Tom Kim struggled his way to a 4 over 74. Gotta love easy wins.
Current Streak: 3
WNBA Moneyline Parlay:
Indiana Fever -1790 vs. Connecticut Sun: This is not going to be close. Indiana lost the last time they played, and that was without Caitlin Clark in the lineup. This Connecticut team is arguably the worst team in the WNBA. They just lost at home to the Chicago Sky, a team the Fever beat by 30 without 2 starters (including Clark). The Fever are a 17.5 point favorite. They have a decent chance of covering that number
New York Liberty -370 vs. Atlanta Dream: This is a classic spot for a team that has overperformed (Atlanta) to come back down to earth. The Liberty started this season a perfect 9-0, but they dropped their first game of the season last outing at Indiana. Caitlin Clark was phenomenal with 32 points, 9 assists, and 8 rebounds. And NY had no answer. But now they are back at home, looking to bounce back. This is a good spot for the Liberty. Additionally, the Liberty were without multiple starters last game. They have all but one starter back now. That paired with their overall talent level, coming off a loss, and playing at home all lead this to a game that New York runs away with. They will come out angry and look to respond from that loss to Indiana.
Minnesota Lynx -845 vs. Las Vegas Aces: The Aces are just not the same team this season. Trading Kelsey Plum has proved to be a terrible mistake. And now they are down Aja Wilson? This team is nowhere near good enough to compete with the second best team in the league on their home floor. Minnesota wins here easily.
Seattle Storm -410 vs. Los Angeles Sparks: This Seattle team is very inconsistent. They were 9.5 point favorites last outing against a .500 GS Valkaryies team, and they got absolutely spanked. If this game was being played at full strength, I would say this is a 50/50 game, but still a good spot for Seattle coming off a loss. They have plenty of talent. The problem for the Sparks is they will be without their two leading scorers, including their best player in Kelsey Plum. Those injuries are way too much to overcome. Give me Seattle in this spot.
Official Pick: 4-Team Parlay (Fever, Liberty, Lynx, Storm) -114
Play-Rating: 2-Star
U.S. Open Round 2 Matchup Best Bets (6/13/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 13, 2025 | 3:47 A.M. CST
Previous Bet: We got home easily with Tyrese Haliburton over. A nice 3-star winner for the followers of my page, as Haliburton got there in the middle of the third quarter. No sweat on that one, and we’ve started a new streak. I’m headed to Las Vegas today, so let’s get on a heater while I’m there!!
Current Streak: 1
Best Bets:
Best Bet No. 1: Brooks Koepka +104 vs. Jordan Speith (RD 2 Matchup):
We’re going to ride with two-time U.S. Open Champion over my favorite golfer today. Despite my love for Jordan Speith, the fact of the matter is that he just hasn’t had it the past couple years. It feels like we all are just waiting for Speith to have some sort of resurgence in his career, and yet it just has not happened. Speith played well yesterday, getting in at even par. But he’s been extremely inconsistent round-to-round. Par yesterday at Oakmont is an exceptional score. It’s hard to see a world where Jordan follows that up with anything BETTER than a 70 today. On the other side, Koepka is the exact opposite. When he’s playing poorly, he often misses the cut. But when he puts up a good first round at a major, he actually tends to improve round to round (relative to course conditions, not always score-wise). Koepka got in at even par, just as Speith did. However, that included finishing with back-to-back birdies on 17 and 18. Had Koepka got through those two holes with two pars, he comes in 2 shots off the lead, in a tie for third. It’s a completely different spot than he’s currently in. Brooks just LOOKED the better golfer, and he’s had significantly more success in majors in the recent past. I actually have ZERO clue how Brooks is a DOG here. I guess his current form is to blame for the number, but Speith has just not been good. Back Brooks to take down Speith at plus money, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it wasn’t particularly close. By the way, I give Brooks a 68% shot to shoot better than Jordan today, and yet we’re catching 4 extra cents on the dollar. I considered making this a 3-star, but we’ll stick to 2-star
Official Pick: Brooks Koepka +104 Over Jordan Speith (U.S. Open Round 2 Matchup)
Play Rating: 2-Star
Best Bet No. 2: Adam Scott -134 vs. Tom Kim
Adam Scott was phenomenal in approach yesterday in round 1 at the U.S. Open. He hit 14 greens in regulation on his way to an even par 70. That said, he struggled with the putter (not a huge surprise). Scott, who will turn 45 next month, still has some good golf left in him. He finished top 10 in the Open Championship at the end of last year, and he finished top 20 (19th) in the PGA Championship roughly a month ago. The experience in this level of tournament can’t be understated. When we look at the other guy here, Tom Kim has been far from good this season. He comes in nowhere near top form. Over the past 4 months, Kim’s BEST finish in a PGA event is a tie for 36th, back in March at the Valspar Championship. In that same span he’s missed the cut 4 times, including last week at the RBC Heritage Canadian Open. His last 4 starts have been as follows: CUT, T-44th, 71st, T-54th. There is just no reason to believe Tom Kim is going to come out and shoot a good score with the course conditions the way that they are. Additionally, I can’t get out of my mind last year, when he absolutely imploded later in the tournament. I think this is a HUGE misprice, as I believe Scott should be closer to -200 or -210 based on the matchup and current form. So, let’s back the veteran Master’s Champion in Adam Scott, as I believe he will easily score better than Tom Kim in round 2 today. Back Adam Scott.
Official Pick: Adam Scott -134 Over Tom Kim
Play Rating: 2-Star
NBA Finals Game 3 Player Prop Best Bet (6/11/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 11, 2025 | 2:18 P.M. CST
Last Bet: We took a loss on our last play with Aliyah Boston over on points. She was at 7 in the first half, and on pace to go over. However, the Fever were up so many on the Sky that Boston did not play much in the 4th quarter, and she finished with just 10 points (we needed 14). Let’s start a new streak tonight. I’ll have one official best bet and I’ll also include the small things I bet tonight.
Current Streak: 0
Best Bet: Tyrese Haliburton OVER 18.5 Points (-104)
Haliburton has really struggled the first two games of the NBA Finals. Everyone remembers the shot he hit in game 1, but the reality is he’s been bad offensively. That said, he hasn’t been inefficient. He’s just not put up the volume required for a guy who is supposed to be the number one option. The first two games Haliburton has scored just 14 and 17 points in each respective game. Tonight we need 19 or more points to go over the total.
None of Haliburton’s inconsistencies in terms of production are surprising. He’s largely been an up and down player over the course of his career, especially scoring wise. If you look at Haliburton’s numbers throughout the playoffs, every single time he’s scored 18 or less back-to-back games (which he did in games 1 and 2), he follows it up with 19 or more the following game. Moreover, when you dive further and look back to the regular season, that pattern continues all the way back to JANUARY. Meaning, it’s been over months since Haliburton has gone 3 straight games without scoring 19 or more. Additionally, all he’s heard over the past 2 days is how unaggressive he was in the first two games & how the Pacers need him to be more aggressive to have a shot to win this series. He even mentioned it after the game 2 loss in the press conference.
With all that in mind, this is a no-brainer. This is one trend that I looked at and decided this is going to be a MAJOR play on for us. It’s a HUGE game for the Pacers’ championship hopes. We KNOW we’re going to get the volume we need in terms of shot attempts. Barring just a HORRIBLE game shooting wise, we are going over this number. The Thunder have really crowded passing lanes and made it difficult for Haliburton to be the distributor that he loves to be. So we also have the scheme working in our favor. Back Tyrese Haliburton to go OVER his point total tonight, to score 19 or more points.
Official Pick: Tyrese Haliburton OVER 18.5 Points (-104)
Play Rating: 3-Star
Additional Plays Considered:
First Half Over 115.5
OKC 1H Team Total OVER 59.5
Indiana 1H Team Total OVER 56.5
Chet Holmgren First Point +550
I bet Chet first point for .25 Units. The rest I played for just 1 Unit. These are not best bets but just the smaller plays I took.
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 7, 2025 | 4:46 P.M. CST
Last Night’s Pick: Winner on Texas Longhorns +115 over Texas Tech. The Longhorns took a 10-0 lead, and cruised to their first ever softball National Title, which means we cruised to an easy winner as well. The market really agreed with me as well, with the Longhorns closing as high as a -140 favorite in some spots. Let’s try to keep the streak going tonight
Current Streak: 4
Tonight’s Best Bet:
The Indiana Fever take on the Chicago Sky for the 2nd time this season tonight in the United Center. The game was moved to the bigger arena (where the Bulls play) anticipating a packed house with Caitlin Clark coming to town. However, Caitlin’s injury has caused ticket prices to plummet, and it’s uncertain whether there will be much of a home court advantage for the Sky tonight. I actually do have a STRONG lean towards Indiana -3.5 in the game. The Fever absolutely anihilated the Sky in their first meeting. However, that meeting was in Indiana and Caitlin Clark was healthy. Now the Fever come in missing Clark and Sophie Cunningham (who also missed the first matchup). They actually had to sign a player to a hardship contract last week after they fell below the 10 active player minimum threshold. All that said, I still think the Fever are the superior team, even with Clark and Cunningham out. So strong lean to the Fever, but that’s not where we are going for our best bet. Instead, we’re going back to the well with some player props.
We’re going to go back to Aliyah Boston and take her to go OVER 13.5 points tonight. Boston comes into this contest averaging 15.6 ppg on the season. Now, in the 3 games Clark has been out, Boston’s production HAS dropped (she’s averaging just 12.3 PPG in that span). However, there are some other factors that have contributed to that, to where I believe there is actually some value on the OVER, despite her lack of scoring the last 3 outings. First off, Boston has a big issue with foul trouble. This is nothing new, but it’s really been bad the last 3 games. She’s committed 14 fouls over the course of those 3 outings (5, 5, & 4), and she has picked up her 3rd foul early in the 2nd quarter, as well as her fourth foul before the halfway mark of the 3rd quarter in ALL THREE GAMES. So, without a doubt she will need to do better than she has lately when it comes to staying out of foul trouble. On a positive note though, she does seem to be aware of it, as she is constantly talking to coaches following foul calls. She also got out of the way multiple times late in the game against the Mystics earlier this week to avoid committing her 5th foul in the 4th quarter. Doing that is beneficial to her and the Fever, because they really need her on the floor to win right now.
The second factor in our favor is that two of the last three games have come against the Washington Mystics. Each game against Washington Boston had just 5 shot attempts. In the other 5 games this season, she’s averaged over 12 shot attempts per game. She is currently shooting an incredibly high percentage this season (67.6%). If she does shoot (in terms of attempts) around her season average, that would give her 16 points (based on her season FG%). It’s quite possible if she DOES stay out of foul trouble, that she takes north of 13 shots. The first matchup against Chicago, Boston finished 8 for 12 with 19 points, 13 rebounds, and 5 blocks. She was dominant on the interior against Angel Reese and Camilla Cardosa. I expect nothing different tonight on the interior, largely because the Sky are delusional enough to think that Angel Reese can guard Aliyah Boston 1 on 1.
Lastly, I took a look at Boston’s poor outings this season (in which she went under this current point total). While Boston does have some down games, she often bounces back from a subpar game with a very good game (specifically in terms of scoring). She’s 2-0 to the over on this number following a game where she scored 10 points or less (she scored 10 last game against the Mystics). In those two games, she averaged 22 PPG (scoring 27 and 17 in each). Additionally, she’s also 2-0 to the over to that number (13.5 points) following a game that she takes 7 shots or less in a game. And, as mentioned previously, 2 of the 3 games she took just 5 shots came against the same team (the Washington Mystics). The only other game Boston struggled was the 3rd game of the season, and it came against the Atlanta Dream. She played just 23 minutes in that game; and while she is definitely prone to foul trouble, they NEED her in the game with Caitlin Clark still sidelined.
Overall, assuming Boston doesn’t get into foul trouble tonight, you are going to see her put up double digit shot attempts. And, you are going to see her have success in the paint against Reese and Cardosa. Let’s back Boston tonight OVER 13.5 points and keep this streak going.
Official Pick: Aliyah Boston OVER 13.5 Points
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Softball World Series Best Bet (6/6/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 6, 2025 | 11:14 A.M. CST
Note: Haven’t had anything I’ve loved the last couple nights so I didn’t post. I do see some value in the “All-Texas” Showdown for the National Championship tonight in college softball, so let’s take a look.
Best Bet: Texas Longhorns +115 vs. Texas Tech
I must admit, I’m not the biggest college softball fan, nor am I a softball fan in general. However, the logic of this number here makes absolutely zero sense. Texas’s star pitcher Teagan Kavan has been nothing short of tremendous in the WCWS. She’s appeared in 5 games in the World Series. She’s a perfect 3-0 as a starter, with one save (in 3 innings in relief), and a 5th appearance last night, recording the final two outs of the game for the Texas defense. Not only is she undefeated, but she has yet to give up a SINGLE EARNED RUN in 5 appearances.
Kavan faces off against probably the most talented pitcher in the country for the Red Raiders, in NiJaree Canady. While Canady has been phenomenal, carrying Texas Tech all the way to a game 3 in the National Championship, she has pitched EVERY SINGLE INNING from the Super Regionals up until this point, including every pitch games 1 and 2 vs. the Longhorns in this series. While it’s not the same as baseball in terms of pitch counts and limits on pitchers, fatigue still plays an issue. While Canady was having to gut out a 1-run (4-3) victory last night to keep the Red Raiders season alive, Kavan was getting some much needed rest. She threw just 12 pitches in relief last night, while Canady has thrown nearly 200 over the course of the first two games. Additionally, Texas’ hitters were starting to figure out Canady late in game 2. And, while Tech was able to hold off the late Horn’s rally, you could see the confidence of the Texas hitters rising, while simultaneously seeing Canady’s fatigue kicking in. They are now asking her to come back out and pitch an entire 7 innings against one of the best teams in the country. It’s just a big ask.
You also factor in the fact that this is Texas’ 3rd trip to the National Championship series in the past 4 years, falling short the first two trips. This one feels different, as the Horns are definitely the BETTER all around team. While I do believe there’s a small chance Canady is able to go the full 7-innings, I don’t think she’s going to be nearly as effective as she would be with a regular days rest. So for that reason, along with the number I don’t know how we don’t take the Horns here. Unless we see 5+ Longhorn errors in this game, I don’t see Texas Tech scoring more than 2-3 runs. And I believe Texas, facing this current fatigued form of Canady, will find success hitting the ball. I could see this somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-1 Texas. So let’s back the Horns here and at a phenomenal price. I doubt this price lasts.
Official Pick: Texas Longhorns (ML) +115
Play Rating: 2-Star
NBA Eastern Conference Finals Best Bet (5/31/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | May 31, 2025 | 3:25 P.M. CST
Yesterday’s Quick Summary: A rocking chair winner with Aliyah Boston OVER 14.5 points last night. Boston came out of the gate on fire, scoring 10 points in the first quarter. However, as I mentioned in the post, she loves to get in foul trouble. She picked up back-to-back fouls (her 2nd and 3rd) with over 7 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter. So instead of having a shot to get there in the first half, Boston was forced to sit the rest of the 1st half. She then picked up her fourth foul midway through the 3rd and sat for an even longer stretch. Now we were able to get there with over 7 minutes to go in the game. But, if Boston had stayed out of foul trouble, we likely get there in the first half, and she probably goes for somewhere north of 20 points. Regardless, a nice sweat-free winner, and we start a new streak!!
Best Bet Tonight:
Indiana Pacers 1st Half Team Total OVER 57.5 (-114)
This is a tremendous spot for a Pacers team that has been an offensive juggernaut in these playoffs. While I don’t think Indiana is a legitimate title contender, they’ve proved to be good enough to run through the East (with a lot of injury luck as well). That said, they are likely the 2nd best offensive team in the playoffs (behind only OKC). And they’ve been particularly good at home. I’ve won 4 times in the playoffs backing the Pacers 1st Half TT Over; it’s all about pick spots, and this is a GREAT one for us to back Indiana.
Through the playoffs as a whole, Indiana has averaged 116.9 points per game (3rd best and 2nd best of the remaining teams behind only OKC). So why are we taking them in the first half? Well let’s break it down. The Pacers have played 15 playoff games this post-season, and they are 8-7 to this number (needing to score at least 58). They are averaging 58.7 points per first half in the playoffs as a whole (61.1 in home games). Neither of those indicate a big edge over a 15 game sample. However, when we dive deeper, we find this specific spot is exactly when the Pacers DO go over early in the game. The Pacers are 5-2 to the OVER to this number in the first halves in home games. Although that’s a small sample size, we have seen them consistently play better early in games at home. Additionally, when the Pacers are coming off a scoring less than 58 in a first half the previous game, they are 5-1 to the over in the first half in the next game. The only time they went UNDER was against Cleveland in game 3 at home. That was a MUST WIN game for Cleveland’s season, and the Pacers came out flat, like they knew they had the series in the bag. And, the Pacers scoring average in first halves goes up to 62.8 points in those games. When you go a step further, TWICE this post season the Pacers have scored LESS than 58 points in a first half AND ALSO lost the game outright. The two games following those performances, the Pacers have come out and LIT IT UP the first half of the following game. Both those games were also at home (which tonight’s game is). They scored 80 and 63 in those two datapoints, easily going over the number we need tonight and averaging a whopping 71.5 points in the first half of those two outings.
So we have a perfect spot here for the Pacers. They also know that this is an absolute MUST WIN for them, as they do NOT want to have to go back to New York for a game 7, having blown a 3-1 series lead. All of the sudden they would be an underdog. And when you think back to game 3, where they held a 21 point first half lead, it would be mentally devastating to try to recover from that and win on the road in a game 7 against Jalen Brunson and company. My model has the Pacers going OVER 57.5 points 73.5% of the time. The implied odds at -114 are 53.3%. So we have a projected edge of +20.2%. That’s quite a massive edge this late in the playoffs. For that reason we are backing the Pacers. And, we are going to make it a 3-star, as that level of an edge is hard to pass up this late in the playoffs.
Official Play: Indiana Pacers First Half Team Total OVER 57.5 (-114)
Play Rating: 3-Star
WNBA Prop Best Bets (5/30/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | May 30, 2025 | 5:14 P.M. CST
Summary:
I’ve not been posting my NBA or WNBA picks here due to being busy with work and not placing large wagers as of late. However, I’ve been on fire to start the season. So I am going to be posting daily picks for my favorite prop bets, sides, and totals for the remainder of the NBA playoffs and the WNBA season. Last year in the WNBA I finished above 70%. Let’s start off a streak tonight.
Best Prop Bet:
Aliyah Boston OVER 14.5 Points (-109)
We’re going to back Aliyah Boston tonight to score 15 or more against the lowly Connecticut Sun. The Sun come into this game 0-5 and they have to play on the road tonight in the most difficult arena to play in the WNBA. Boston is very reliant on Caitlin Clark for her production, and we saw her numbers drop significantly last game with CC out with a quad injury. That said, the Fever are still a much better team than they showed last outing, even with CC sidelined. Additionally, we look at that box score and we see that Dewanna Bonner, who was averaging just 2.5 points per game coming into that game, put up a game-high 25 points. We are very unlikely to see that same level of production tonight. One because she isn’t very good anymore, and two because her scoring wasn’t a recipe for success. Aliyah Boston’s production, on the other hand, tends to be correlated to winning. I believe Stephanie White (new Indiana Head Coach) will make it a point of emphasis to get it to Boston early and often. And, if she can stay out of foul trouble, this is a very favorable matchup for her. The Sun boast the league’s worst interior defense (and defense as a whole). Boston is in for a big night tonight. Sprinkle some on Boston Over 22.5 points (alternate) at +380, as I think we could see her go for 25+ tonight.
Official Play: Aliyah Boston OVER 14.5 Points (-109)
Play Rating: 2-Stars